Thursday, August 18, 2005

The Self-fulfilling Prophecy

In 1957, Robert Merton wrote in his "Social Theory and Social Structure" that the Self-fulfilling Prophecy occurred when " a false definition of the situation evokes a new behavior which makes the original false conception come true." Or, once an expectation is laid out, even if false, people tend to act in ways consistent with the expectation, which often comes true.

We in fact are now seeing this on a daily basis. The headlines from the newspaper are in some form or another: GAS TO REACH $$$ PER GALLON. There is no or very little outcry from the citizens, mumbles but no outcry. Our elected representation in the various levels of government say nothing... Except for a few trying to change their level in the government. Which often seems to be more of a personal agenda rather than help for their fellow citizens. Those at the highest level of government must have enough fuel to run their government vehicles and heat their government quarters because they also seem highly ignorant of the situation.

I realize that some in government are so against such things as oil refineries, SUVs and private vehicles that they are also unconcerned.

With all of this said, we need to remember that those same newspapers also continuously report that the worlds oil companies are also posting record profits.

Here is my prophecy for a country which moves on and exists in its present state so dependent upon crude oil: High fuel costs will to uncontrolled inflation followed by economic chaos.

Do not be fooled that crude oil suppliers will always sell their products to this country. The Chinese are coming after as much of the worlds energy as they can get their hands on. Failure to increase our energy sources by both increasing our ability to refine crude oil as well as diversifying into other energy sources will be our downfall.

New, modern oil refineries would eliminate many of the problems caused by oil refineries built years ago. The new ones would have better electronic controls to insure they are more environmentally friendly. But they are like warships in the fact they can not be built overnight. They take years of planning, all of which takes time.

This country is running out of time.

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